Podcast
In this podcast, CSIRO’s Dr Stefan Hajkowicz talks with Glen Paul of CSIROpod, about the six megatrends identified by 'The Future of Australian Sport' study, conducted by the Australian Sports Commission in partnership with CSIRO.
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G’day, and welcome to CSIROpod, I’m Glen
Paul. Sport is a fundamental part of the Australian
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experience – we play sport, watch sport,
bet on sport, and talk sport, more than anything
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else and it’s been this way since colonial
times. When Australian Edward Trickett won
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the world sculling championship on London’s
Thames River in 1876, over 25,000 people lined
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the Sydney dockside to welcome him home. But
the types of sports we watch and play evolve
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over time. Would the sculling victory generate
as much fervour if it happened today? Will
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we in 30 years time be as keen on Aussie Rules
football, or rugby league, as we are now?
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To find out, CSIRO and the Australian Sports
Commission collaborated on a research project
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aimed at identifying sports participation
over the next three decades, breaking it down
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into trends and megatrends. Principal Scientist
of the report, CSIRO’s Doctor Stefan Hajkowicz,
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joins me on the phone. Stefan, what led you
to undertake this project?
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Well the Australian Sports Commission wanted
to have a look at trends and directions in
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the future of Australian sports, so ultimately
they can make better decisions about investment
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policies, and how to build the sporting future
that the nation actually wants.
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So there’s six overarching megatrends in
the report, and the first looks at the rise
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of extreme sports, and is aptly titled From
Extreme to Mainstream, is this suggesting
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that slipping into a wing suit and jumping
off a cliff will become more popular to do
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or watch than a game of cricket?
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Yeah, not for me until my old age. But I think
we are likely to see adventure sports on the
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rise, because the thing that we’re trying
to get at in this one is the increased importance
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of self expression through sport and a lifestyle
element. We live in a highly safety conscious
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culture, and we have safety drills at work,
we have safety briefings on the airline, we’re
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thinking safety all the time, and a large
part of society has moved into office space
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jobs in white collar sector.
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So a counter reaction to this, that we think
is happening, is that especially Generation
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Y, the younger generations, are really connecting
to extreme sports and lifestyle sports, such
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as skateboarding, BMX, kite boarding, wing
suits as you’ve mentioned probably a smaller
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part of the population, but we’re seeing
these sports on the rise. We saw BMX cycling
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get into the Beijing 2008 Olympics, and there’s
a big debate underway about whether or not
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skateboarding, for example, will find its
way into the Rio Olympics in 2016, as kite
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boarding has been.
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It’s interesting that inside those sports
fraternities we’re seeing a bit of a split
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in those parts of the sporting community that
really want to get skateboarding into the
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Olympics, and they think it would be great,
but there’s also another counter reaction
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against that, and some skateboarders saying
it’s not really what skateboarding is about,
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you know it’s about a lifestyle and a culture,
more than a formalised Olympic event. So some
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of those discussions are interesting, but
we’re seeing those rise.
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I think it’s also worth pointing out that
Australia’s best winter Olympics ever was
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2010 in Vancouver, where we won gold in the
women’s aerial skiing and snowboard half
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pipe, two sports which are probably more towards
the extreme end variances of alpine skiing
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and snowboarding. So we’ve seen Australia
connect to these quite heavily, and I remember
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on the research we were actually looking at
YouTube videos about all the extreme sports,
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which was a pretty fun way for the team to
spend the afternoon, but they have a little
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map on those YouTube videos about where they’re
all getting watched, and Australia was always
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very intense in watching a lot of the extreme
sports videos. So it may be that we have a
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bit of a natural advantage in that area, or
that for some reason Australian’s are connecting
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more heavily to them.
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Hmm. So do you think those YouTube videos
are inspiring people to go jump off a cliff,
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or do something like that?
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I think there’s got to be an element of
building new communities and engagement around
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sports. I think some of the extreme surfing
videos have several million worth of hits
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in only one year. Now, only a small fraction
of those people might actually want to pick
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up surfing as a consequence of watching that
video, but because there’s so many people
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doing it, that’s still a significant impact.
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I certainly do think social media, Facebook,
YouTube, Twitter, has created a mechanism
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via which sports can get communicated and
adopted, and people can get engaged around
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a sport. It’s more so than it has in the
past. It’s easy to logon, have a look at
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the sport, look at other people doing it,
and that’s enough to prompt interest. I
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reckon they are having an impact.
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And you mentioned there the YouTube map showing
up Australia as being a place that engages
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in these kind of sports, but what of other
countries that are now on the rise, with the
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next megatrend relating to wealth increasing
in these countries, such as China, and the
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desire to be competitive, so what does that
mean for the rest of the world?
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Yeah, look one of the other big megatrends
or big shifts in the Australian sporting sector
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that we picked up is called New Wealth, New
Talent, and this looks at the rapid income
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growth across Asia, but that’s been married
by a rapid growth in sporting capabilities.
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So first of all, you know, we see the Chinese
gold medal tally rising very sharply, and
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no reason why it shouldn’t keep going, they’re
performing extremely well at successive Olympics,
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and sports participation rates are going up
in Asia.
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A lot of it is associated with income growth.
As people get wealthier they have more discretionary
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expenditure, and part of that expenditure
is allocated towards sporting activities,
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so we’re seeing sports participation and
competition definitely on the rise throughout
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Asia, and it may create opportunities for
Australia to market and sell our sports into
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Asia as well.
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And then there’s the next megatrend, Everybody’s
Game, which deals with how Australia and many
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other OECD countries deal with an ageing population
and cultural changes, the report says Fourteen
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percent of the Australian population is currently
over 65 years of age, and is forecast to reach
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between 23 and 25 percent by the year 2056,
so do we go beyond traditional sports such
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as lawn bowls in the future?
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Yeah, I think we do go beyond lawn bowls in
the future, but I think what we are seeing
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is demographic and cultural change, the indicators
are that old people aren’t just giving up
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and stopping playing sport, there’s plenty
to suggest that old people are very much wanting
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to keep playing sport as they get older, and
one dataset we’ve got here in front of us
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that shows that a bit is the attendance at
the World Masters Games, they’re like the
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Olympics for older people, you’ve got to
be over 35 to be in it, and each successive
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year it’s gone up. But in Australia is where
it peaks the most in terms of the number of
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participants that come along, so and all of
the times it’s been held in Australia it’s
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got higher on each successive event, which
is I think one indicator.
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But there’s a lot of other data that we’ve
got that shows that older Australians are
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still wanting to stay engaged in the professional
world, but also the sporting world, so that’s
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one change we’ve got. We’re also facing
cultural diversification in Australia, which
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is a great thing, but it’s changing the
sorts of sports that people might be interested
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in, because different cultures have different
sporting preferences. And some of the icons
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of the Australian sporting sectors, such as
rugby, cricket, aren’t connecting so heavily
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to diverse cultures we’ve got, as say soccer,
or aerobics fitness sports.
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Hmm. And what sort of sports can you see emerging
through cultural diversity?
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Well soccer is the one that seems to be most
on the rise. The Australian Bureau of Statistics
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looks at different sports played by people
from different backgrounds, and soccer is
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one that seems to appeal and connect to a
wider variety of cultures, than some of the
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other sports. That’s one that does seem
to be on the rise.
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OK. Then there’s More Than Sport, which
looks beyond just playing the game with sport
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as a mechanism via which Government and industry
can attain policy and business objectives.
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How does that work?
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Yeah, we think that there is a big shift,
both in the corporate and Government world,
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to start using sport to achieve health and
other social policy objectives. So one of
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the big challenges in front of Australia,
there’s no doubt about it, is the overweight
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and obesity trend, and all the graphs are
pointing upwards, and it’s a major crisis,
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and I think it’s something that everyone’s
keen to see turn around.
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Now, sport is being shown, childhood sport
especially has been linked to improved health
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outcomes and better health status in older
age. You know, one study done from the United
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States of 400 or so women looked at how much
sporting activity they did when they were
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kids, and then their health status later in
life, and there was a really strong correlation,
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the more sport you did when you were a kid,
the more likely you were to be healthier later
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in life.
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Now there’s cause/effect questions, but
there’s enough evidence out there for us
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to know that physical activity and sporting
activity when you’re young helps you stay
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fitter and healthier when you’re older,
so it is an effective mechanism for Australia
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to start to look at how to deal with obesity
and overweight trends, along with all the
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other programs, such as diet. So that’s
one angle, but sport also features in Government
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policy and other spaces. Sport is something
that the Australian Aid Agency used to build
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linkages to other countries. Sport is an effective
mechanism for building international relations.
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That’s also being done in the United Nations.
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There’s a growth in the number of international
sports agencies that are using sport as mechanisms
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for creating peace and good relations between
different countries. The United Nations created
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a special advisor on sport and development
for peace in 2001, so that area has grown
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as well. Sport has also been found by the
Australian Institute of Criminology as a possibly
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useful way to prevent crime, and they found
that communities where crime is prevalent
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have had less crime when there are sporting
facilities and sporting festivals in those
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communities.
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OK. So there’s some all round benefits there.
Just getting back to the Government connections,
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thinking about that, would say our cricketing
relationship with Pakistan and India, for
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example, give us a political edge when dealing
with those Governments say over the United
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States, who don’t have that connection?
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Look, I mean there’s no way of proving that
one way or another, but my guess would be
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yes, and I think that what we see in the international
community is a growth in the use of sports
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to build those linkages. You know it is formally
adopted by the United Nations and recognised
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as a great way to build relations between
countries. I think some questions could be
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asked, for example, about getting the apartheid
system removed from South Africa, what effect
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the sports ban had on that, and I think the
desire to get into the international sporting
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community was actually quite significant.
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Interesting. The next megatrend is called
A Perfect Fit, where people are looking to
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squeeze time for sport into their already
busy lives. How are we going to achieve that?
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Yeah. I think one of the things that actually
really stood out for me from this study is
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the massive growth of the fitness sector,
and individualised sport. So once upon a time
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we were getting fit to play sport, we’re
now playing sport to get fit, if that makes
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sense. The primary driver for what we’re
doing in a lot of our physical activity is
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getting fit, and maybe that’s a response
to the health issues that the nation is seeing,
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that people really do want to stay fit. So
gym membership is massively on the rise, and
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has been. The number of gyms in Australia
has gone up, and the amount of expenditure
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on gyms has gone up. The lycra industry has
been out of control.
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Whilst organised sport has sort of maintained
a level, non-organised sport, like going for
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a run with the iPod on, or a walk, that stuff
is growing quite rapidly. Sports like aerobics,
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and walking, and running, are the sports that
have grown most rapidly over the last decade,
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so that people are playing sport on their
own with a primary objective of fitness, and
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it is placing some of the organised sports
under pressures.
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Another thing that we talk about under A Perfect
Fit is time fragmentation. If we look at statistics
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on how Australians spend their time, there’s
evidence that our time is getting more sliced
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and diced. A typical day in an Australian’s
calendar today has a lot more events and activities
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crammed into it than it use to in the past,
and when our time is sliced and diced like
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this, we find it hard to commit to that two
o’clock Saturday afternoon soccer game every
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week, or the sailing regatta which can take
up half a day. People are less willing to
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do that. They want to fit a sporting activity
neatly into a heavy packed agenda, which might
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mean that they instead go to the gym, or go
for a run in the morning before work, where
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it fits in, and where it suits them.
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And the last megatrend, one we’ve become
familiar with in recent times, you’ve only
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got to watch the news, Track Suits to Business
Suits, with large sponsorship deals from sporting
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teams and players, business people getting
involved in the formation of teams. How is
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this further going to impact on sport?
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Yeah. Look, it’s been underway for a while,
and a lot of these megatrends are there, but
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it’s going to continue to play out for quite
some time we think. The sports sector is a
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huge part of the economy, it’s big, off
hand it employs some 75,000 Australians, sport
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is a major sort of generator of revenue, and
sports broadcasting is where we’re seeing
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a lot of that happen. Corporate sponsorship
deals are up, too, and if we look at data
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around the world, the Australasia region is
one of the most rapidly growing in terms of
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sport sponsorship deals.
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So it’s creating a lot more market power
in the sports sector, and those sports that
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can respond to the market conditions and sell
broadcasting rights are likely to do well,
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and elite sports people in those sports are
likely to get better salaries, and those sports
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that can’t are going to struggle in that
environment.
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So the market forces are going to become more
intense on sport into the future. But I think
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also the sort of debate we’re seeing in
sports is an interesting one, about whether
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they adopt the AFL style governance systems,
and those sorts of governance models are becoming
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more formalised, structured, with Boards,
that’s what we’ve seen happen to quite
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a few sports in the past, and I think that
sort of thing is more on the agenda for the
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future, a more structured corporate governance
for sport.
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With that thought, do you think extreme sports
may then become mainstream sports, driven
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by market forces?
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I think there’s potential for that. You
now, I think putting BMX into the Olympics
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was an interesting one, and it helps the sport
of cycling stay connected to the younger generation.
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And Generation Y have a lot of spending power,
they have a lot of discretionary expenditure,
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so they’re connecting to these extreme and
adventure sports, and if they do start to
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find their way into the Olympics more, they’re
going to only rise.
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With that rise, perhaps the 1975 futuristic
movie, Rollerball, about sport in a corporate
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controlled future may well end up being played
out. Thank you very much for discussing this
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with me today, Stefan, very interesting stuff.
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Thank you very much.
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Doctor Stefan Hajkowicz. For information find
us online at www.csiro.au. You can like us
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on Facebook, or follow us on Twitter, at CSIROnews.
G’day, and welcome to CSIROpod, I’m Glen
Paul. Sport is a fundamental part of the Australian
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experience – we play sport, watch sport,
bet on sport, and talk sport, more than anything
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else and it’s been this way since colonial
times. When Australian Edward Trickett won
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the world sculling championship on London’s
Thames River in 1876, over 25,000 people lined
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the Sydney dockside to welcome him home. But
the types of sports we watch and play evolve
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over time. Would the sculling victory generate
as much fervour if it happened today? Will
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we in 30 years time be as keen on Aussie Rules
football, or rugby league, as we are now?
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To find out, CSIRO and the Australian Sports
Commission collaborated on a research project
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aimed at identifying sports participation
over the next three decades, breaking it down
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into trends and megatrends. Principal Scientist
of the report, CSIRO’s Doctor Stefan Hajkowicz,
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joins me on the phone. Stefan, what led you
to undertake this project?
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Well the Australian Sports Commission wanted
to have a look at trends and directions in
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the future of Australian sports, so ultimately
they can make better decisions about investment
0:01:13.710,0:01:17.750
policies, and how to build the sporting future
that the nation actually wants.
0:01:17.750,0:01:21.520
So there’s six overarching megatrends in
the report, and the first looks at the rise
0:01:21.520,0:01:27.280
of extreme sports, and is aptly titled From
Extreme to Mainstream, is this suggesting
0:01:27.280,0:01:31.100
that slipping into a wing suit and jumping
off a cliff will become more popular to do
0:01:31.100,0:01:32.740
or watch than a game of cricket?
0:01:32.740,0:01:37.740
Yeah, not for me until my old age. But I think
we are likely to see adventure sports on the
0:01:37.740,0:01:42.820
rise, because the thing that we’re trying
to get at in this one is the increased importance
0:01:42.820,0:01:48.630
of self expression through sport and a lifestyle
element. We live in a highly safety conscious
0:01:48.630,0:01:52.509
culture, and we have safety drills at work,
we have safety briefings on the airline, we’re
0:01:52.509,0:01:57.130
thinking safety all the time, and a large
part of society has moved into office space
0:01:57.130,0:01:59.570
jobs in white collar sector.
0:01:59.570,0:02:05.560
So a counter reaction to this, that we think
is happening, is that especially Generation
0:02:05.560,0:02:11.879
Y, the younger generations, are really connecting
to extreme sports and lifestyle sports, such
0:02:11.879,0:02:16.200
as skateboarding, BMX, kite boarding, wing
suits as you’ve mentioned probably a smaller
0:02:16.200,0:02:21.010
part of the population, but we’re seeing
these sports on the rise. We saw BMX cycling
0:02:21.010,0:02:25.249
get into the Beijing 2008 Olympics, and there’s
a big debate underway about whether or not
0:02:25.249,0:02:31.430
skateboarding, for example, will find its
way into the Rio Olympics in 2016, as kite
0:02:31.430,0:02:32.409
boarding has been.
0:02:32.409,0:02:36.540
It’s interesting that inside those sports
fraternities we’re seeing a bit of a split
0:02:36.540,0:02:39.870
in those parts of the sporting community that
really want to get skateboarding into the
0:02:39.870,0:02:43.199
Olympics, and they think it would be great,
but there’s also another counter reaction
0:02:43.199,0:02:46.430
against that, and some skateboarders saying
it’s not really what skateboarding is about,
0:02:46.430,0:02:51.279
you know it’s about a lifestyle and a culture,
more than a formalised Olympic event. So some
0:02:51.279,0:02:53.939
of those discussions are interesting, but
we’re seeing those rise.
0:02:53.939,0:02:57.650
I think it’s also worth pointing out that
Australia’s best winter Olympics ever was
0:02:57.650,0:03:02.680
2010 in Vancouver, where we won gold in the
women’s aerial skiing and snowboard half
0:03:02.680,0:03:08.549
pipe, two sports which are probably more towards
the extreme end variances of alpine skiing
0:03:08.549,0:03:12.409
and snowboarding. So we’ve seen Australia
connect to these quite heavily, and I remember
0:03:12.409,0:03:17.189
on the research we were actually looking at
YouTube videos about all the extreme sports,
0:03:17.189,0:03:20.709
which was a pretty fun way for the team to
spend the afternoon, but they have a little
0:03:20.709,0:03:24.499
map on those YouTube videos about where they’re
all getting watched, and Australia was always
0:03:24.499,0:03:28.739
very intense in watching a lot of the extreme
sports videos. So it may be that we have a
0:03:28.739,0:03:32.400
bit of a natural advantage in that area, or
that for some reason Australian’s are connecting
0:03:32.400,0:03:33.309
more heavily to them.
0:03:33.309,0:03:39.040
Hmm. So do you think those YouTube videos
are inspiring people to go jump off a cliff,
0:03:39.040,0:03:40.559
or do something like that?
0:03:40.559,0:03:44.260
I think there’s got to be an element of
building new communities and engagement around
0:03:44.260,0:03:48.779
sports. I think some of the extreme surfing
videos have several million worth of hits
0:03:48.779,0:03:52.319
in only one year. Now, only a small fraction
of those people might actually want to pick
0:03:52.319,0:03:55.900
up surfing as a consequence of watching that
video, but because there’s so many people
0:03:55.900,0:03:58.199
doing it, that’s still a significant impact.
0:03:58.199,0:04:04.540
I certainly do think social media, Facebook,
YouTube, Twitter, has created a mechanism
0:04:04.540,0:04:09.569
via which sports can get communicated and
adopted, and people can get engaged around
0:04:09.569,0:04:13.519
a sport. It’s more so than it has in the
past. It’s easy to logon, have a look at
0:04:13.519,0:04:16.500
the sport, look at other people doing it,
and that’s enough to prompt interest. I
0:04:16.500,0:04:19.359
reckon they are having an impact.
0:04:19.359,0:04:24.080
And you mentioned there the YouTube map showing
up Australia as being a place that engages
0:04:24.080,0:04:28.139
in these kind of sports, but what of other
countries that are now on the rise, with the
0:04:28.139,0:04:33.830
next megatrend relating to wealth increasing
in these countries, such as China, and the
0:04:33.830,0:04:37.280
desire to be competitive, so what does that
mean for the rest of the world?
0:04:37.280,0:04:40.680
Yeah, look one of the other big megatrends
or big shifts in the Australian sporting sector
0:04:40.680,0:04:45.009
that we picked up is called New Wealth, New
Talent, and this looks at the rapid income
0:04:45.009,0:04:49.120
growth across Asia, but that’s been married
by a rapid growth in sporting capabilities.
0:04:49.120,0:04:54.470
So first of all, you know, we see the Chinese
gold medal tally rising very sharply, and
0:04:54.470,0:04:59.280
no reason why it shouldn’t keep going, they’re
performing extremely well at successive Olympics,
0:04:59.280,0:05:01.889
and sports participation rates are going up
in Asia.
0:05:01.889,0:05:06.620
A lot of it is associated with income growth.
As people get wealthier they have more discretionary
0:05:06.620,0:05:10.729
expenditure, and part of that expenditure
is allocated towards sporting activities,
0:05:10.729,0:05:16.400
so we’re seeing sports participation and
competition definitely on the rise throughout
0:05:16.400,0:05:21.650
Asia, and it may create opportunities for
Australia to market and sell our sports into
0:05:21.650,0:05:23.840
Asia as well.
0:05:23.840,0:05:28.159
And then there’s the next megatrend, Everybody’s
Game, which deals with how Australia and many
0:05:28.159,0:05:34.550
other OECD countries deal with an ageing population
and cultural changes, the report says Fourteen
0:05:34.550,0:05:39.879
percent of the Australian population is currently
over 65 years of age, and is forecast to reach
0:05:39.879,0:05:46.879
between 23 and 25 percent by the year 2056,
so do we go beyond traditional sports such
0:05:47.539,0:05:49.189
as lawn bowls in the future?
0:05:49.189,0:05:53.409
Yeah, I think we do go beyond lawn bowls in
the future, but I think what we are seeing
0:05:53.409,0:05:58.039
is demographic and cultural change, the indicators
are that old people aren’t just giving up
0:05:58.039,0:06:01.860
and stopping playing sport, there’s plenty
to suggest that old people are very much wanting
0:06:01.860,0:06:06.879
to keep playing sport as they get older, and
one dataset we’ve got here in front of us
0:06:06.879,0:06:10.180
that shows that a bit is the attendance at
the World Masters Games, they’re like the
0:06:10.180,0:06:15.759
Olympics for older people, you’ve got to
be over 35 to be in it, and each successive
0:06:15.759,0:06:19.330
year it’s gone up. But in Australia is where
it peaks the most in terms of the number of
0:06:19.330,0:06:23.719
participants that come along, so and all of
the times it’s been held in Australia it’s
0:06:23.719,0:06:27.569
got higher on each successive event, which
is I think one indicator.
0:06:27.569,0:06:30.639
But there’s a lot of other data that we’ve
got that shows that older Australians are
0:06:30.639,0:06:35.969
still wanting to stay engaged in the professional
world, but also the sporting world, so that’s
0:06:35.969,0:06:39.360
one change we’ve got. We’re also facing
cultural diversification in Australia, which
0:06:39.360,0:06:42.599
is a great thing, but it’s changing the
sorts of sports that people might be interested
0:06:42.599,0:06:45.560
in, because different cultures have different
sporting preferences. And some of the icons
0:06:45.560,0:06:50.699
of the Australian sporting sectors, such as
rugby, cricket, aren’t connecting so heavily
0:06:50.699,0:06:55.650
to diverse cultures we’ve got, as say soccer,
or aerobics fitness sports.
0:06:55.650,0:06:59.529
Hmm. And what sort of sports can you see emerging
through cultural diversity?
0:06:59.529,0:07:04.110
Well soccer is the one that seems to be most
on the rise. The Australian Bureau of Statistics
0:07:04.110,0:07:08.080
looks at different sports played by people
from different backgrounds, and soccer is
0:07:08.080,0:07:12.999
one that seems to appeal and connect to a
wider variety of cultures, than some of the
0:07:12.999,0:07:15.879
other sports. That’s one that does seem
to be on the rise.
0:07:15.879,0:07:20.669
OK. Then there’s More Than Sport, which
looks beyond just playing the game with sport
0:07:20.669,0:07:25.499
as a mechanism via which Government and industry
can attain policy and business objectives.
0:07:25.499,0:07:26.590
How does that work?
0:07:26.590,0:07:31.240
Yeah, we think that there is a big shift,
both in the corporate and Government world,
0:07:31.240,0:07:36.439
to start using sport to achieve health and
other social policy objectives. So one of
0:07:36.439,0:07:40.499
the big challenges in front of Australia,
there’s no doubt about it, is the overweight
0:07:40.499,0:07:44.560
and obesity trend, and all the graphs are
pointing upwards, and it’s a major crisis,
0:07:44.560,0:07:49.199
and I think it’s something that everyone’s
keen to see turn around.
0:07:49.199,0:07:54.379
Now, sport is being shown, childhood sport
especially has been linked to improved health
0:07:54.379,0:07:59.710
outcomes and better health status in older
age. You know, one study done from the United
0:07:59.710,0:08:05.460
States of 400 or so women looked at how much
sporting activity they did when they were
0:08:05.460,0:08:09.340
kids, and then their health status later in
life, and there was a really strong correlation,
0:08:09.340,0:08:13.240
the more sport you did when you were a kid,
the more likely you were to be healthier later
0:08:13.240,0:08:13.779
in life.
0:08:13.779,0:08:16.710
Now there’s cause/effect questions, but
there’s enough evidence out there for us
0:08:16.710,0:08:21.189
to know that physical activity and sporting
activity when you’re young helps you stay
0:08:21.189,0:08:25.180
fitter and healthier when you’re older,
so it is an effective mechanism for Australia
0:08:25.180,0:08:29.539
to start to look at how to deal with obesity
and overweight trends, along with all the
0:08:29.539,0:08:35.610
other programs, such as diet. So that’s
one angle, but sport also features in Government
0:08:35.610,0:08:41.110
policy and other spaces. Sport is something
that the Australian Aid Agency used to build
0:08:41.110,0:08:46.040
linkages to other countries. Sport is an effective
mechanism for building international relations.
0:08:46.040,0:08:48.089
That’s also being done in the United Nations.
0:08:48.089,0:08:54.500
There’s a growth in the number of international
sports agencies that are using sport as mechanisms
0:08:54.500,0:08:59.860
for creating peace and good relations between
different countries. The United Nations created
0:08:59.860,0:09:05.370
a special advisor on sport and development
for peace in 2001, so that area has grown
0:09:05.370,0:09:10.540
as well. Sport has also been found by the
Australian Institute of Criminology as a possibly
0:09:10.540,0:09:15.050
useful way to prevent crime, and they found
that communities where crime is prevalent
0:09:15.050,0:09:19.870
have had less crime when there are sporting
facilities and sporting festivals in those
0:09:19.870,0:09:20.329
communities.
0:09:20.329,0:09:25.000
OK. So there’s some all round benefits there.
Just getting back to the Government connections,
0:09:25.000,0:09:29.089
thinking about that, would say our cricketing
relationship with Pakistan and India, for
0:09:29.089,0:09:33.070
example, give us a political edge when dealing
with those Governments say over the United
0:09:33.070,0:09:34.380
States, who don’t have that connection?
0:09:34.380,0:09:38.160
Look, I mean there’s no way of proving that
one way or another, but my guess would be
0:09:38.160,0:09:44.570
yes, and I think that what we see in the international
community is a growth in the use of sports
0:09:44.570,0:09:49.029
to build those linkages. You know it is formally
adopted by the United Nations and recognised
0:09:49.029,0:09:53.199
as a great way to build relations between
countries. I think some questions could be
0:09:53.199,0:09:57.639
asked, for example, about getting the apartheid
system removed from South Africa, what effect
0:09:57.639,0:10:01.449
the sports ban had on that, and I think the
desire to get into the international sporting
0:10:01.449,0:10:03.360
community was actually quite significant.
0:10:03.360,0:10:07.290
Interesting. The next megatrend is called
A Perfect Fit, where people are looking to
0:10:07.290,0:10:13.009
squeeze time for sport into their already
busy lives. How are we going to achieve that?
0:10:13.009,0:10:17.269
Yeah. I think one of the things that actually
really stood out for me from this study is
0:10:17.269,0:10:24.269
the massive growth of the fitness sector,
and individualised sport. So once upon a time
0:10:24.320,0:10:27.940
we were getting fit to play sport, we’re
now playing sport to get fit, if that makes
0:10:27.940,0:10:31.240
sense. The primary driver for what we’re
doing in a lot of our physical activity is
0:10:31.240,0:10:35.480
getting fit, and maybe that’s a response
to the health issues that the nation is seeing,
0:10:35.480,0:10:39.420
that people really do want to stay fit. So
gym membership is massively on the rise, and
0:10:39.420,0:10:43.120
has been. The number of gyms in Australia
has gone up, and the amount of expenditure
0:10:43.120,0:10:47.079
on gyms has gone up. The lycra industry has
been out of control.
0:10:47.079,0:10:52.490
Whilst organised sport has sort of maintained
a level, non-organised sport, like going for
0:10:52.490,0:10:59.490
a run with the iPod on, or a walk, that stuff
is growing quite rapidly. Sports like aerobics,
0:10:59.779,0:11:04.040
and walking, and running, are the sports that
have grown most rapidly over the last decade,
0:11:04.040,0:11:09.500
so that people are playing sport on their
own with a primary objective of fitness, and
0:11:09.500,0:11:12.690
it is placing some of the organised sports
under pressures.
0:11:12.690,0:11:17.630
Another thing that we talk about under A Perfect
Fit is time fragmentation. If we look at statistics
0:11:17.630,0:11:21.610
on how Australians spend their time, there’s
evidence that our time is getting more sliced
0:11:21.610,0:11:26.660
and diced. A typical day in an Australian’s
calendar today has a lot more events and activities
0:11:26.660,0:11:31.430
crammed into it than it use to in the past,
and when our time is sliced and diced like
0:11:31.430,0:11:36.019
this, we find it hard to commit to that two
o’clock Saturday afternoon soccer game every
0:11:36.019,0:11:40.670
week, or the sailing regatta which can take
up half a day. People are less willing to
0:11:40.670,0:11:45.839
do that. They want to fit a sporting activity
neatly into a heavy packed agenda, which might
0:11:45.839,0:11:49.959
mean that they instead go to the gym, or go
for a run in the morning before work, where
0:11:49.959,0:11:52.170
it fits in, and where it suits them.
0:11:52.170,0:11:55.350
And the last megatrend, one we’ve become
familiar with in recent times, you’ve only
0:11:55.350,0:12:00.250
got to watch the news, Track Suits to Business
Suits, with large sponsorship deals from sporting
0:12:00.250,0:12:05.029
teams and players, business people getting
involved in the formation of teams. How is
0:12:05.029,0:12:06.769
this further going to impact on sport?
0:12:06.769,0:12:11.029
Yeah. Look, it’s been underway for a while,
and a lot of these megatrends are there, but
0:12:11.029,0:12:15.459
it’s going to continue to play out for quite
some time we think. The sports sector is a
0:12:15.459,0:12:20.930
huge part of the economy, it’s big, off
hand it employs some 75,000 Australians, sport
0:12:20.930,0:12:25.860
is a major sort of generator of revenue, and
sports broadcasting is where we’re seeing
0:12:25.860,0:12:29.569
a lot of that happen. Corporate sponsorship
deals are up, too, and if we look at data
0:12:29.569,0:12:33.389
around the world, the Australasia region is
one of the most rapidly growing in terms of
0:12:33.389,0:12:35.019
sport sponsorship deals.
0:12:35.019,0:12:40.089
So it’s creating a lot more market power
in the sports sector, and those sports that
0:12:40.089,0:12:45.290
can respond to the market conditions and sell
broadcasting rights are likely to do well,
0:12:45.290,0:12:48.970
and elite sports people in those sports are
likely to get better salaries, and those sports
0:12:48.970,0:12:52.790
that can’t are going to struggle in that
environment.
0:12:52.790,0:12:58.500
So the market forces are going to become more
intense on sport into the future. But I think
0:12:58.500,0:13:02.329
also the sort of debate we’re seeing in
sports is an interesting one, about whether
0:13:02.329,0:13:07.889
they adopt the AFL style governance systems,
and those sorts of governance models are becoming
0:13:07.889,0:13:12.279
more formalised, structured, with Boards,
that’s what we’ve seen happen to quite
0:13:12.279,0:13:16.009
a few sports in the past, and I think that
sort of thing is more on the agenda for the
0:13:16.009,0:13:19.490
future, a more structured corporate governance
for sport.
0:13:19.490,0:13:24.709
With that thought, do you think extreme sports
may then become mainstream sports, driven
0:13:24.709,0:13:26.360
by market forces?
0:13:26.360,0:13:30.440
I think there’s potential for that. You
now, I think putting BMX into the Olympics
0:13:30.440,0:13:35.949
was an interesting one, and it helps the sport
of cycling stay connected to the younger generation.
0:13:35.949,0:13:40.889
And Generation Y have a lot of spending power,
they have a lot of discretionary expenditure,
0:13:40.889,0:13:46.209
so they’re connecting to these extreme and
adventure sports, and if they do start to
0:13:46.209,0:13:50.569
find their way into the Olympics more, they’re
going to only rise.
0:13:50.569,0:13:56.490
With that rise, perhaps the 1975 futuristic
movie, Rollerball, about sport in a corporate
0:13:56.490,0:14:00.930
controlled future may well end up being played
out. Thank you very much for discussing this
0:14:00.930,0:14:02.740
with me today, Stefan, very interesting stuff.
0:14:02.740,0:14:03.850
Thank you very much.
0:14:03.850,0:14:10.360
Doctor Stefan Hajkowicz. For information find
us online at www.csiro.au. You can like us
0:14:10.360,0:14:13.620
on Facebook, or follow us on Twitter, at CSIROnews.
